The BEA Releases It’s Preliminary Estimates

Following up on my previous post, and the Economist article on statistics and GDP reporting, the Bureau of Economic Analysis has released its “preliminary estimates” for GDP growth. They match up spot on to the “advanced estimates” and are at 0.6% growth in the last quarter of 2007, compared with 4.9% growth in the previous quarter.

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent.

The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was also 0.6 percent. [link]

The estimates are in the following sequence: advanced –> preliminary –>  final.  The revisions from advanced to preliminary are, on average, +0.09%, according to the BEA. From advanced to final, according to the same source, the average revisions are -0.01%. So, on the whole, it is not surprising that we did not see a change from the advanced to the preliminary estimates.

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